Covid 19 update 4/21/2020

  • Singapore extends lockdown until end of June, longest in the world
  • Demonstrators fill the streets of Paris
  • Cuomo holds Tuesday briefing in Buffalo
  • Yonhap denies reports that NK’s KJU is dying
  • Schumer revives hopes for Tuesday night Senate vote on relief bill
  • Italy bond yields climb as PM Conte says EU rescue package proposal not enough
  • US cases jump 5.7% on Tuesday, biggest jump since April 10
  • Air Canada suspends flights to the US
  • AG Barr says DoJ may sue some states with strict virus limits
  • Congressional leaders strike deal on $320 billion bailout
  • Spain caves, decides to let children under 14 leave the house unaccompanied
  • Fla. reports 835 new cases
  • Georgia, Tennessee & South Carolina unveil plans to start reopening economies by Tuesday
  • Sweden sees another jump in cases
  • Gottlieb says true # of US cases likely “10x higher” than official total
  • New York sees total new cases decline for 6th day
  • Gavin Newsom says “now is not the time” to reopen the country
  • France suspends flights outside the Schengen area
  • JPM has developed plan to get employees back in the office
  • Global cases pass 2.5 million
  • Ireland won’t allow mass gatherings until August “at the earliest”
  • US cases near 800k, with deaths passing 170k


  1. Keep in mind that “Passing the peak” means that the number of new cases in the first wave are declining,
    If people stop distancing themselves the number of new cases will spike again.
    The second wave will come this fall and the virus will have mutated unpredictably, this wave will hit during flu season which will affect both morbidity and mortality.
    If it stays as nasty as it now is we can expect more deaths and more people being permanently impaired because their immune systems will be weakened by dealing with the flu.
    If it becomes less lethal we will have dodged a bullet.
    If it acts like the 1918-1919 Kansas flu it’s “Katy Bar the door”.
    To anyone who hopes for a successful Vaccine within a year I suggest you “hope in one hand and shit in the other, see which one fills up first.”
    Researchers have been looking for a successful vaccine for SARS-1 and MRS for decades with no success, and even if a vaccine works for one strain, this puppy mutates quickly and there’s little likelihood it will work any better than current flu vaccines.
    The world will not go back to the way it was.
    Boogaloo within a year is more likely than not.
    Keep your powder dry, it’s going to get real interesting.

    • A vaccine is by no means the only hope. As you point out, the vaccine may never happen. Better treatment options (which we’re already seeing just six weeks in) and better testing options can make a huge difference in fighting this disease. I doubt that America will tolerate South Korea-style contact tracing, but if we can get good, rapid tests ready, that will go a long way towards keeping our health care system functional, which was the main reason why we shut down last month. Better supplies of PPE will also help keep health care afloat, and can be expanded out to other industries based on urgency.

  2. Shawn, I haven’t tracked down details, but it looks like China has used the Bat Flu crisis to crack down on the Hong Kong protesters from earlier this year.


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